Looking ahead, here, as the president would say, is the deal:

►I doubt Biden will seek re-election. That was never a real possibility for a man who just turned 79, no matter how well things go during the next three years. Faced with negative press reports, the White House recently said Biden "intends" to run, but what choice did they have? Conceding lame-duck status would be disastrous for his administration.

►Donald Trump won't get the GOP nomination. The former president still wields power with some politicians and a chunk of Republican voters, but I don't think it's enough to earn him another shot at the presidency. Trump currently ranks as poorly as Biden in the Real Clear Politics average of approval ratings.

►Kamala Harris is not the answer. From the day she became vice president, Harris gave new meaning to the phrase "one heartbeat away." She's not only next in line but is considered by some Democrats to be the de facto candidate in 2024. Yet, when she sought the presidential nomination in 2020 Harris was an epic failure and withdrew when polls showed she wouldn't even win the primary in her home state of California. Worse...

►Biden seems to be sidelining Harris. Her vice presidential profile is low and she hasn't been given the type of marquee assignments with which to blossom. An analysis by the Los Angeles Times shows while Harris and Biden were "practically inseparable" during their first two months in office, Harris has since been functioning as a "more conventional vice president, one who sees the president less often." Speculation that she would receive special grooming for the presidency has not yet proved true. Moreover...

►Sitting vice presidents rarely move directly to the presidency unless the sitting president dies or quits. It didn't start that way; the nation's first VP, John Adams, became the second U.S. president. But in the last hundred years, only one sitting vice president has been voted into the top job: George H.W. Bush.

►A divided nation seeks change. The one-term presidencies of Trump and Biden might become a White House norm for years to come. Rage against Trump – fully justified, in my view – is now being matched by fierce outcries by those opposing Biden. Everything, it seems, is a Big Deal, even on matters so fundamental as saving lives with COVID vaccinations.

►Recent elections showed serious problems for Democrats. Governors' races in which Republican Glenn Youngkin crafted a dramatic win in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy held on to his office by only a whisker in New Jersey, seem to indicate that Democrats face a more galvanized GOP.

Trumpism without Trump, observed Trump biographer Timothy O'Brien, appears to be more popular than Trumpism with Trump.

►Democrats' fears are mounting over next year's midterms. The party in power traditionally loses ground in midterm voting, but current indicators show a potentially devastating loss by Democrats. Analysts at FiveThirtyEight see the possibility of significant Republican gains in Congress, placing both chambers firmly in GOP control after a "veritable red wave" at the polls.

Of course, much could change before the midterms next November, and even more shifts will undoubtedly occur between now and presidential voting in 2024. A sign of hope for Democrats came with passage of the eight-year, $1 trillion infrastructure bill – a key element in Biden's 2020 campaign. Meanwhile, prospects for taming the pandemic – with booster shots, child vaccinations and new pills for COVID treatment – could place the Biden Administration in a much more favorable position with voters in the months ahead, although the omicron variant could change that.

As he turns 80 shortly after next year's midterms, Biden will need to find a way to alert the nation that he won't be seeking a second term, if for no other reason than to allow candidates other than Kamala Harris to organize. It won't be smooth, and it won't be pretty. And it could give Republicans just what they need to promote presidential candidates not tied to Trump or his vulgar politics.

In his election victory speech in 2020, Biden said, "I pledge to be a president who seeks not to divide, but to unify." Among the many daunting tasks he faced in his first year, delivering on that pledge has proved to be the most difficult.

(c) Peter Funt. This column originally appeared in USA Today.